大越期货甲醇早报-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations. The inland market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance and may fluctuate strongly this week. The port market has obvious supply - demand contradictions, with expected continuous inventory accumulation, and is expected to be in a state of fluctuating with both ups and downs. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2400 - 2470 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases but with low inventory and external procurement demand from CTO enterprises, it may fluctuate strongly. The port is expected to accumulate inventory due to concentrated shipments from Iran and large - scale olefin plant shutdowns, and is in a fluctuating state. The expected price range for MA2601 this week is 2400 - 2470 [4]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely to rise: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production decreases, port inventory is low, new acetic acid plants are put into operation, and northwest CTO factories purchase methanol externally [6]. - Likely to fall: Previously shut - down devices resume operation, there will be concentrated ship arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, traditional demand is in the off - season, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling goods, and some factories in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2390 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 45, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [4]. - Inventory: As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 89.11 tons, a cumulative increase of 8.78 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increases by 7.29 tons to 57.12 tons [4]. - Market price changes: From August 8 - 14, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.18%, the futures price decreased by 1.80%. The import cost decreased by 0.42%, and the import spread decreased by 18 yuan/ton [8][9][11][26]. - Operating rate: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% [8]. - Production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 30 yuan/ton, natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit increased by 329 yuan/ton [20]. - Downstream product prices: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from August 8 - 14 [29]. - Downstream production profit and load: Formaldehyde production is at a loss, with a load increase of 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production has a profit decrease of 36 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.82%. Acetic acid production loss decreased by 15 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 1.94%. MTO production loss decreased by 90 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.15% [33][36][40][45]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, shutdown, or production - reduction states, with varying maintenance start and end times and different weekly maintenance losses [56]. - Foreign devices: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or have uncertain recovery status, while most devices in other countries are operating normally, and some are in the maintenance period [57]. - Olefin devices: Some olefin devices are in maintenance or shutdown states, while most are operating normally, and some have plans for future maintenance or production expansion [58].