大越期货天胶早报-20250815

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is - 835 with the spot at 14800, indicating a bearish sign. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is running below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line flat, which is bearish. The main force has a net short position with short positions decreasing, also bearish. The market has support below, and short - long trading is expected [4]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on August 14 [8]. 2.2. Inventory - The exchange inventory has increased recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has changed slightly [14][17]. 2.3. Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 2.4. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, but tire production reached a new high in the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][29][32]. 3. Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Likely to Fall Factors: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [6]. 4. Basis - The basis strengthened on August 14 [35].