大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is in a state of over - supply due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][12]. - Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut and suspension plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [10]. - Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand Side: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 79,732 yuan/ton, a 0.88% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,114 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 83,715 yuan/ton, a 1.26% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,942 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On August 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3,300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [8]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase; in July 2025, the lithium carbonate import volume was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous value [15]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase from the previous value. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, and the production from different sources such as spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake showed different trends [17]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase from the previous value. The monthly production of ternary precursor was 30,990 tons (622 type), a 7.08% increase from the previous value. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased, with the lithium iron phosphate loading volume increasing by 1.87% and the ternary battery loading volume decreasing by 5.27% [17]. - Inventory Data: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease. The smelter inventory decreased by 2.56%, and the downstream inventory increased by 0.26% [17]. - Cost - Profit Data: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds vary. For example, the production profit of purchased spodumene concentrate was 1,114 yuan/ton, while the production of purchased lithium mica resulted in a loss of 4,942 yuan/ton [8].