Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the demand shows no improvement, the inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory showing positive signs, a neutral market trend, and a net short position of the main contract increasing, it is expected that the real estate market will remain weak, future demand will cool down, and the domestic plan to cut production capacity will impact the market. Therefore, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may come into play. With a positive basis, inventory showing positive signs, a neutral market trend, and a net short position of the main contract decreasing, it is expected that market supply and demand will weaken, exports will be blocked, and the domestic plan to cut production capacity will impact the market. A high - level oscillation approach should also be adopted [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand is poor, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - Basis: The spot price of rebar is 3320, and the basis is 131, which is positive [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 314.93 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - Market Trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral trend [2]. - Main Contract Position: The main contract of rebar has a net short position, and the short position is increasing, which is negative [2]. - Likely Positive Factors: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic production - capacity reduction expectations [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [3]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may come into play, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Basis: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the basis is 18, which is positive [6]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 277.49 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - Market Trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral trend [6]. - Main Contract Position: The main contract of hot - rolled coils has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [6]. - Likely Positive Factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production - capacity reduction expectations [7]. - Likely Negative Factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8].
大越期货螺卷早报-20250815
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-15 02:54