大越期货油脂早报-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose with stable supply. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the leadership of the rapeseed sector. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,600, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results with less - than - expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 32, indicating a neutral situation [3] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same MPOB report situation as above, indicating neutral fundamentals and increasing palm oil supply later [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,000, with a basis of 160, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely: The US soybean stocks - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production - reduction season [5] - Unlikely: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]