棉花早报-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall analysis of cotton is neutral, with multiple factors showing both positive and negative signals. The US Department of Agriculture's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should focus on the battle at the 14,000 mark in the short - term. If it can stand above 14,000, there is upward momentum; otherwise, the future trend will be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. The USDA's August report shows a production of 2539.2 million tons and consumption of 2568.8 million tons, with an ending inventory of 1609.3 million tons. The rural department's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 625 million tons, import of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and ending inventory of 823 million tons. Overall, it is considered neutral [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,214, with a basis of 1059 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast of ending inventory is 823 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is bullish, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The US Department of Agriculture's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The short - term focus of the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract is on the 14,000 mark [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Forecast: In August, the total global cotton production is 2539.2 million tons (a decrease of 39.1 million tons from July), consumption is 2568.8 million tons (a decrease of 3 million tons from July), and ending inventory is 1609.3 million tons (a decrease of 74.2 million tons from July) [10]. - ICAC Global Forecast: For the 2025/26 period, global production is 2590 million tons (an increase of 40 million tons or 1.6% year - on - year), consumption is 2560 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 1710 million tons (an increase of 26 million tons or 1.6% year - on - year), and global trade volume is 970 million tons (an increase of 36 million tons or 3.9% year - on - year) [12]. - Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Forecast: In July 2025/26, production is 625 million tons, import is 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 823 million tons [4]. - Other Data: In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China's cotton imports were 3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%; cotton yarn imports were 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is bullish [4].