沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250815

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai nickel and stainless steel dated August 15, 2025, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Nickel 2509 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3] - Stainless Steel 2510 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5] Summary by Directory Shanghai Nickel - Fundamentals: The external market has fallen significantly, with prices below the 20 - day moving average. There was a shipment of Norwegian nickel slabs last week, increasing supply. The ore price is stable, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has declined. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Overall, it is bearish [4] - Basis: The spot price is 123,350, and the basis is 2,150, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: LME inventory is 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,720 (+142), which is bearish [4] - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [4] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, ocean freight has decreased slightly, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Overall, it is neutral [5] - Basis: The average stainless - steel price is 13,850, and the basis is 825, which is bullish [5] - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,521 (+3), which is bearish [5] - Market: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5] Multi - and Short - term Factors - Bullish Factors: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8] - Bearish Factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, with no new demand growth points. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries has increased [8] Price Overview - Nickel: On August 14, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,200 (-1,140 compared to August 13), and the LME nickel was at 15,050 (-190). The spot prices of SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans all decreased [13] - Stainless Steel: On August 14, the stainless - steel main contract was at 13,025 (-105 compared to August 13), and the spot prices of cold - rolled coils in different regions remained unchanged [13] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 14, LME inventory was 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,720 (+142) [15][16] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 8, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,620 tons, in Foshan was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons month - on - month. On August 14, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,521 (+3) [19][20] Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - Red soil nickel ore CIF prices (Ni1.5% at 57 dollars/wet ton and Ni0.9% at 29 dollars/wet ton) remained unchanged on August 14 compared to August 13. Ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel price increased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point, and the low - nickel ferronickel price remained unchanged [23] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,931, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,649, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,534 [25] Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price is 121,457/ton [28]