大越期货沪铜早报-20250815

Report's Core View - The copper market's fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened, and the July manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. Inventory conditions are neutral. The price is above the 20-day moving average with the average trending upwards, and the main positions are net long but decreasing, both being bullish. Given the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - The logical factors affecting the copper market include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table presents production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with smelting production cuts, scrap copper policy changes, and a decline in July's manufacturing PMI [2]. - Basis: Bullish, with a spot price of 79465 and a basis of 515, showing a premium over futures [2]. - Inventory: Neutral, with copper inventory decreasing by 25 to 155850 tons on August 14 and SHFE copper inventory increasing by 9390 tons to 81933 tons from the previous week [2]. - Disk: Bullish, with the closing price above the 20 - day moving average and the average trending upwards [2]. - Main positions: Bullish, with the main net positions being long but decreasing [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as slow Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logical factors are domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of bullish and bearish factors are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - 2024 has a slight surplus, and 2025 is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 shows detailed data on production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [20][22]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [14][16].