大越期货白糖早报-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus amount. The price of foreign sugar has rebounded briefly and then fallen back below 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 currently follows the trend of foreign sugar and may fluctuate in the range of 5,600 - 5,700 in the short term [5][8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Negative factors include the increase in global sugar production, a new year of global supply surplus, and the opening of the import profit window due to the low price of foreign sugar [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review The report does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: StoneX has revised down the global sugar market supply surplus for the 25/26 season by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 390,000 tons, and imported 115,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,200 tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,040 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 381 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a positive factor [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with a net short - position increase. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - Expectation: After a brief rebound, foreign sugar has fallen back below 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 currently follows the trend of foreign sugar and may fluctuate in the range of 5,600 - 5,700 in the short term [5]. 3. Today's Focus The report does not contain content related to today's focus. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780,000 tons, and Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons [36]. - Sugar Production and Consumption in China: The sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are provided. The expected sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.2 million tons, with an expected consumption of 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - Cost of Imported Raw Sugar Processing: The cost of imported raw sugar processing after tax (50% tariff) from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided. The cost has generally shown a downward trend, affected by factors such as Brazilian production data and global production expectations [42]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, with a net short - position increase, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].