大越期货菜粕早报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, resulting in a short - term shock - strengthening pattern. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell. The short - term shock - strengthening pattern is due to factors such as the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, high demand in the short - term, and low inventory. The price range for RM2601 is expected to be between 2540 and 2600. [8] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and import deposit collection has begun. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodity prices. [10] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, the spot is at a premium to the futures, the price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, and the oil mill's rapeseed meal inventory is not under pressure in the short term. Bearish factors: Rapeseed meal inventory has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, and the main short positions have increased with capital outflows. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is still uncertain. [8] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - demand situation. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has affected the market. [10] - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, a 18.52% week - on - week increase and a 14.29% year - on - year increase. [8] - Price: The spot price is 2640, with a basis of 34, indicating a premium to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. [8] 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out. [8]