大越期货豆粕早报-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a range - bound and slightly bullish pattern. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. Factors include the uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas, high imports of Brazilian soybeans in China, and the influence of rapeseed meal [8]. - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state in the short - term. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4100. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the price [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Progress in China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, imports, and tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short - term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The short - term increase in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possible speculation on US soybean - growing weather and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short - term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a high - yield South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a high - yield Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppress the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price in East China is 2980, with a basis of - 177, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 259, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main contracts have decreased, but capital has flowed in [8][10]. Other Data - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean harvest areas, inventory, production, consumption, etc., from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Provide data on soybean harvest areas, yields, production, inventory, exports, and consumption in the US from February to August 2025 [41]. - Other Market Data: Such as the export inspection volume of US soybeans, the arrival volume of imported soybeans, the inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, and the situation of the pig - farming market [42][44][45][50][52]