《农产品》日报-20250815

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil production is seasonally increasing, and although export data can offset some of the production increase, inventory is expected to rise by the end of August. Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken and may seek support in the 9000 - 9200 yuan range. CBOT soybeans are near a technical resistance level and may correct, affecting CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil inventory may decrease after peaking, and basis quotes will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. Meal - The USDA monthly supply - demand report and anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed have provided short - term support, but after the short - term positive information fades, the market may face profit - taking. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and spot prices are under pressure. The bottom range of meal has shifted up, and short - term profit - taking is possible. Overall, the trend remains upward [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig prices are supported by farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening. However, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Group farms'出栏 is expected to recover in August, and large pigs from small farmers also need to be sold. The far - month 01 contract has stronger support, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4][5]. Corn - The corn market has rebounded due to the impact of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed and the USDA August report, but its own fundamentals have not changed much. Supply will gradually ease, and the market sentiment is weak. Consumption is not significantly boosted, and the wheat price squeezes corn demand. The short - term rebound is limited, and there may be opportunities to short. In the long - term, the cost of new - season corn may decrease, and supply pressure may increase [8]. Sugar - ISMA's forecast of increased sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season has pressured the raw sugar price. Brazil's high - proportion sugar production has not led to a year - on - year increase in total sugar output. India and Thailand have full expectations of a good harvest. The raw sugar price is unlikely to break the previous low in the short - term, but the overall trend is bearish. Zheng sugar has rebounded but is under pressure from increased imports [12]. Cotton - The spot basis of cotton is temporarily firm, and the downstream industry has shown marginal improvement. However, downstream confidence is still insufficient, and the expected increase in new - season cotton production will bring long - term supply pressure. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have reached a phased low, which may stimulate downstream procurement. However, high inventory levels and the impact of cold - stored eggs will suppress price increases. The overall trend of egg futures is bearish [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Palm Oil: On August 14, the spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9380 yuan, the futures price (P2601) dropped 1.38% to 9294 yuan, and the basis increased 295.45%. Inventory is expected to rise [1]. - Soybean Oil: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 8840 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) was 8592 yuan, and the basis increased 20.97%. Factory inventory may decrease after peaking [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: In Jiangsu, the spot price dropped 2.53% to 10000 yuan, the futures price (OI601) dropped 2.16% to 9852 yuan, and the basis decreased 22.51% [1]. Meal - Soybean Meal: In Jiangsu, the spot price remained unchanged at 3090 yuan, the futures price (M2601) dropped 0.19% to 3157 yuan, and the basis increased 8.22%. The Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's import profit increased 680% [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: In Jiangsu, the spot price dropped 2.26% to 2600 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) dropped 3.05% to 2606 yuan, and the basis increased 78.57%. The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import profit increased 36.92% [2]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan, the futures price of the main contract dropped 1.61% to 4041 yuan, and the basis increased 44.90% [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Spot Prices: On August 15, the spot price in Shandong increased by 100 yuan to 13900 yuan, while prices in other regions had minor changes [4]. - Other Indicators: Sample point slaughter volume decreased 0.16%, and the weekly white - striped pork price decreased 0.25%. Piglet prices decreased 3.7%, and sow prices decreased 0.03% [5]. Corn - Corn: The futures price of corn 2509 increased 0.09% to 2281 yuan, the basis increased 85.71%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 20% [8]. - Corn Starch: The futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased 0.11% to 2648 yuan, the basis increased 5.08%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 21.54% [8]. Sugar - Futures Market: The futures price of sugar 2601 increased 0.04% to 5659 yuan, and the ICE raw sugar main contract dropped 1.49% to 16.58 cents [12]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning increased 0.17% to 5980 yuan, and the basis increased [12]. - Industry Situation: National sugar production increased 12.03% year - on - year, and sales increased 23.07%. Industrial inventory decreased 9.56% [12]. Cotton - Futures Market: The futures price of cotton 2509 increased 0.33% to 13875 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 6.67% [13]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased 0.02% to 15060 yuan, and the basis decreased [13]. - Industry Situation: Commercial inventory decreased 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased 1.8%. Cotton outbound shipping volume increased 22.6% [13]. Eggs - Futures Market: The egg 09 contract dropped 2.62% to 3191 yuan, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased 97.83% [16]. - Spot Market: The egg产区 price remained unchanged at 3.12 yuan per catty, and the basis increased 53.95% [16]. - Industry Indicators: The egg - feed ratio decreased 7.2%, and the breeding profit decreased 111.23% [16].