《能源化工》日报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August. Currently, the production volume remains at a high level year - on - year. This week, the port has significantly accumulated inventory, the basis is stable, there are many imports in August, downstream demand is weak due to low profits, MTO profits are low, and the situation of low - profit and high - load operation is unsustainable. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up situation. For the 09 contract, there is significant inventory accumulation. The 01 contract has expectations of a seasonal peak season and Iranian plant shutdowns. After the near - end weakens significantly, consider building positions at low prices [1][2]. Polyolefins - On the supply side, PP maintenance is starting to decline, PE maintenance will increase in mid - to - late August, imports remain at a low level, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from August to September. On the demand side, the downstream start - up of PP/PE is at a low level, raw material inventories have decreased to a low level, and there is potential for restocking during the subsequent peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches is being depleted. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. The strategy is to take profit on the previous unilateral short positions at 7200 - 7300 near 7000 and continue to hold the LP01 position [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Some PX maintenance units have restart expectations, and PX supply will increase marginally in August. Although there are new PTA units being put into operation, there are many unplanned PTA unit shutdowns in August due to low processing fees. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in August, and with weak oil price support, PX will fluctuate weakly. However, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the downward space for PX is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 6500 - 6600 for PX11 and mainly expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [10]. - PTA: Due to continuously low processing spreads, the planned shutdowns of PTA units have increased in August, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations. However, with the commissioning of the new Hailun Petrochemical PTA unit, the medium - term PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, and the PTA basis will operate weakly. Overall, considering the weak supply - demand expectations and the trend of oil prices, PTA will fluctuate weakly. However, due to low PTA processing fees and limited PX supply - demand pressure, and with the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downward space for PTA is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 4600 for TA01, conduct reverse arbitrage for TA1 - 5 at high prices, and mainly expand the PTA surface processing fee at low levels (around 250) [10]. - MEG: In terms of domestic supply, multiple coal - to - MEG units are restarting or increasing production in August, but the 1.9 - million - ton - per - year MEG unit of Shenghong Refining & Chemical is currently shut down due to an accident, and the restart time is undetermined, so the domestic supply recovery is postponed. In terms of overseas supply, the Ma Petroleum and Saudi Sharg3 units have shut down temporarily, and the restart time is unclear. The MEG import volume may be revised downwards. On the demand side, terminal orders are weak during the traditional off - season, but as the high - temperature period and the off - season are coming to an end, the polyester load will gradually increase. Overall, the short - term MEG supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4350 - 4500 [10]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber supply and demand are both increasing. On the supply side, the previously shut - down short - fiber plants are gradually restarting. In terms of demand, with the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are improvements in local autumn and winter orders at the terminal, and the downstream yarn - coating demand has increased slightly compared to last year, providing some support for prices. However, the short - term supply - demand driving force is limited, and the weak oil price trend may cause the absolute price of short - fiber to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is the same as that for TA in a single - side trade; the surface processing fee will fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100, and the upward and downward driving forces are both limited [10]. - Bottle - grade polyester: August is still the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and large bottle - grade polyester plants such as Sanfangxiang, China Resources, Yisheng, and Wankai are maintaining production cuts. As the production - cut time extends, even though the demand is average, the production - cut effect is gradually emerging, as reflected in the slow depletion of current bottle - grade polyester inventory, which provides support for the processing fee. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The precondition for the processing fee to expand is an increase in demand. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the production cuts of bottle - grade polyester units will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation. The strategy is that the PR single - side trade is the same as that for PTA, the main - contract surface processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and consider going long on the processing fee at low prices in the short term [10]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are rebounding. The current main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risk uncertainties and weak demand expectations. Specifically, the meeting between US and Russian leaders may cause oil price fluctuations. If the summit fails, the threat of secondary sanctions from the US on Russian oil buyers such as China and India may lead to supply disruptions in Russia, triggering a short - term bullish risk premium and driving oil prices to rebound slightly. However, the loose supply - demand fundamentals suppress the upward space. The IEA expects the supply surplus pressure to become increasingly prominent from 2025 - 2026, and the production increase of OPEC+ and the growth of non - member supply will further increase the loose pressure. In the short term, the unexpected increase in EIA US crude oil inventories has also strengthened the bearish sentiment. Macroscopically, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides some support for demand, but the impact is limited and lagging. Overall, the market remains in a stalemate before the summit results. As the weekend approaches, oil prices face two - way risks and the volatility will intensify. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for single - side trades and consider widening the spreads between October - November/December. The support levels are [60, 61] for WTI, [63, 64] for Brent, and [470, 480] for SC. On the options side, opportunities for volatility contraction can be captured [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream rigid demand has followed up. The overall demand performance has been good recently. However, some units in East China will resume operation next week. There will be fewer maintenance enterprises in the future than before, and the supply is expected to increase. In South China, it is the off - season for non - aluminum industries, but the supply is increasing. The exports of East China enterprises are mostly previous orders, and the non - aluminum market is also average. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August, which will also have a certain negative impact. It is expected that the rebound height will be limited. In the future, attention can be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises [76]. - PVC: On the supply side, new production capacity is being gradually put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, the spot trading is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is increasing. The inventory pressure continues to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve. In August, new domestic and foreign production capacity will continue to be released. Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua are expected to release production capacity in August, Gansu Yaowang plans to start production in August, and Qingdao Haiwan plans to start production in September. The release of new production capacity will put new pressure on the PVC supply side. On the downstream side, there is no expectation of improvement, the start - up rate of downstream product enterprises remains low, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The industry is still in the off - season. Overall, the supply - demand pressure remains significant. The movement of coking coal will affect the PVC futures price from the cost side. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for short - term trades [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: In the third quarter, there are expectations of improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand situation compared to the previous quarter. With fewer port arrivals in August, port inventories are expected to decline, which will provide some short - term support for pure benzene prices. However, the overall supply of goods remains sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected that the short - term support for pure benzene will be relatively strong. However, with weak oil price support and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations, pure benzene will face some pressure. The strategy is that the BZ2603 single - side trade will follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [79]. - Styrene: In the short term, the overall styrene supply remains at a high level. However, as styrene profits are being compressed, some units have maintenance expectations; the overall load of the downstream 3S has increased. The short - term styrene supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the port inventory continues to decline slightly, but the absolute level of port inventory is still high, and the fundamental driving force for styrene is limited. Coupled with the recent weak oil price trend, styrene may be dragged down in the short term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 7200 for EB09 and consider shorting on rebounds [79]. Urea - Recently, the futures market has been fluctuating weakly. The main trading logic is that the loose domestic supply - demand situation has dragged down the center of the futures price. Specifically, on the supply side, the production volume has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has improved. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, the overall supply is sufficient. On the demand side, agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand has limited growth, and in some regions, downstream production is restricted due to the military parade, resulting in temporary pressure on demand. The continuous inventory accumulation has further increased the market pressure. Although there is a certain amount of exports, the increase is limited, and the market's expectation for export fulfillment has cooled down, making it difficult to reverse the loose domestic supply - demand situation, which has led to the downward pressure on the futures price. In the future, pay attention to the resumption progress of maintenance enterprises and new maintenance plans, as well as the progress of the export side, the final confirmed volume of the Indian IPL tender, and China's supply proportion. In the short term, the futures market is likely to continue to operate weakly [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Prices and Spreads: On August 14, the closing price of MA2601 was 2435, down 1.77% from the previous day; the closing price of MA2509 was 2340, down 1.47%. The MA91 spread was - 8.65%, and the Taicang basis remained stable at 10. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang all declined to varying degrees [1]. - Inventory: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 tons, up 0.64% from the previous value; port inventory was 102.2 tons, up 10.41%; social inventory was 131.7 tons, up 8.06% [1]. - Start - up Rates: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream start - up rate was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the overseas upstream start - up rate was 69.8%, up 1.96%. The downstream MTO unit start - up rate was 76.92%, up 0.68%; the formaldehyde start - up rate remained unchanged at 30.2%; the water - based paint start - up rate was 90.8%, up 1.09% [1]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: On August 14, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed. The basis of North China LDPE film and East China PP both increased slightly [7]. - Inventory: As of Wednesday, PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 tons, down 13.76% from the previous value; PP enterprise inventory was 58.8 tons, up 0.07%. The PP trader inventory was 18.0 tons, down 4.06% [7]. - Start - up Rates: As of Thursday, the PE device start - up rate was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 37.9%, down 0.47%. The PP device start - up rate was 76.6%, down 1.1%; the PP powder start - up rate was 37.5%, up 4.1%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 48.6%, down 0.3% [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices and Spreads: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed to varying degrees. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle - grade chips also fluctuated. The PX - related prices and spreads, as well as the PTA - related prices and spreads, also showed different trends [10]. - Inventory and Arrival Expectations: As of August 11, the MEG port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 7.2% from August 4. The MEG arrival expectation on August 14 was 14.1 tons, up 2.2% from the previous day [10]. - Start - up Rates: The Asian PX start - up rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%; the Chinese PX start - up rate was 82.0%, up 0.9%. The PTA start - up rate was 76.2%, up 0.9%; the MEG comprehensive start - up rate was 68.4%, down 0.6%. The polyester comprehensive start - up rate was 88.8%, up 0.7% [10]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: On August 15, Brent crude oil was at $66.84 per barrel, up 1.84% from the previous day; WTI was at $63.90 per barrel, down 0.09%. The spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties also changed significantly [14]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all changed to varying degrees on August 15. The spreads between different refined oil contracts also showed different trends [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Prices and Spreads: On August 14, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%), East China calcium - carbide - based PVC, and other products all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [76]. - Inventory: As of August 7, the liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 21.9 tons, up 2.0%; the PVC upstream factory inventory was 33.7 tons, down 2.4%; the total PVC social inventory was 48.1 tons, up 7.3% [76]. - Start - up Rates: As of August 8, the PVC total start - up rate was 77.8%, up 6.1%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and PVC pipes all changed to varying degrees [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Prices and Spreads: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also fluctuated. The spreads between different products and contracts also showed different trends [79]. - Inventory: As of August 11, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.60 tons, down 10.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.88 tons, down 6.4% [79]. - Start - up Rates: As of August 8, the Asian pure benzene start - up rate was 76.096%, down 1.3%; the domestic pure benzene start - up rate was 78.8%, up 0.3%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS also changed to varying degrees [79]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads