广发期货日评-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - Stock Index: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - Treasury Bonds: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - Steel and Iron Ore: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - Copper and Aluminum: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil and Related Products: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - Other Chemical Products: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - Grains and Oilseeds: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - Other Agricultural Products: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - Special Products: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - New Energy Products: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].