Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2509 rising by 0.03%. Overall, it slightly increased under the situation of rising supply and insufficient demand. In the first half of the week, the price rose due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but in the second half, the data revised the expectation and the price declined [4]. - The start - up rate is rising, and the output is increasing. The start - up rate of primary lead is still stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product income is stable. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to the continuous fluctuation of lead prices. The supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, with a tight supply of waste batteries at the raw material end and low confidence of smelters. The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional consumption peak season, the actual spot trading is average when the price rises, and the overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage. Although the consumption increment expectation in August is weak, there is a possibility of improvement as the peak season deepens. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, which reflects the improvement of overall demand. It is expected that the overall supply of Shanghai lead will remain flat next week, the demand will gradually increase, and it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will mainly fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,200, with a stop - loss range of 16,300 - 17,300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated. The main contract 2509 was active, rising by 0.03%. It was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in the first half of the week and data revision in the second half [4]. - Market Outlook: The start - up rate and output are rising. The supply of primary lead is relatively stable, while the supply of secondary lead has regional differences and is relatively tight. The demand for lead is mainly in the lead - acid battery field, and it is in a slow recovery stage. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,200, with a stop - loss range of 16,300 - 17,300 [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead declined slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio decreased. As of August 14, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1,938 per ton, the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was 16,730 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.63 [6][10]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, while the foreign premium and discount weakened. As of August 13, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 30 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 40.87 dollars per ton [12][16]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 66,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 261,675 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons; the number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 61,784 tons, an increase of 3,128 tons [29][33]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - Side: - Primary Lead: As of August 7, 2025, the average start - up rate of primary lead in major production areas was 75.65%, a decrease of 1.84% compared with last week; the weekly output was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week [18][20]. - Secondary Lead: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic output of secondary lead in major production areas was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 47.44%, a decrease of 0.9% compared with the previous period. The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged at 68 as of July 31, 2025 [24][27][37]. - Trade: In June, the export volume of refined lead was 3,183 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.69% and a year - on - year increase of 133.69%. The import volume of refined lead was 817 tons, and the import volume of lead alloy was 10,657 tons. From January to June, the total export volume of refined lead and lead products was 34,748 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 29.89%; the total import volume was 75,013 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 152.1% [39][41]. - Demand - Side: - Processing Fees: As of July 31, 2025, the national average processing fee for lead concentrates was 540 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee for imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - 60 dollars per thousand tons, both remaining flat [44][46]. - Automobile Sales: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the automobile sales volume was 2.593 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to July, the cumulative automobile sales volume was 18.269 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4%. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 8.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 38.5% [48][50]. - Product Prices: As of August 14, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,890 yuan per ton, both remaining flat [52][54].
联储降息预期升温，沪铅需求存在变数
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 08:30