工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅高位徘徊震荡，震旦行情继续延续-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon rose by 1.09% and polysilicon by 3.84%. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuated sharply with a rise - then - fall trend, and the polysilicon futures market went up first, then down, and rebounded later [4]. - In the future, for industrial silicon, supply in Southwest China is expected to increase, while demand from downstream industries remains flat. For polysilicon, supply may increase due to potential restarts and new capacity, but short - term demand is weak. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust, and the industrial silicon market will remain volatile [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short - term, with an oscillation range of 46000 - 53000 and a stop - loss range of 44000 - 55000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Performance: Industrial silicon rose 1.09% and polysilicon rose 3.84%. The industrial silicon futures market was up then down, and the polysilicon futures market had a more complex up - down - up pattern [4]. - Market Outlook: In the industrial silicon market, supply in Southwest China is expected to increase, while demand from downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) remains flat. In the polysilicon market, supply may increase, but short - term demand is weak, and it is expected to face adjustment [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Industrial Silicon: The price oscillated, the spot price rose, and the basis strengthened. As of August 14, 2025, the spot price was 9400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 725 yuan/ton. The weekly production was about 7.98 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.95% [10][12][20]. - Polysilicon: The price oscillated, the basis weakened, and the spot price was flat. As of August 14, 2025, the spot price was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week, and the basis was - 3430 yuan/gram [14][16]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Raw Materials and Cost: The raw materials of industrial silicon remained stable, and the electricity price was flat during the flood season. The electricity price in Baoshan was 0.29 yuan/kWh, other regions were at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and Xinjiang was at 0.35 yuan/kWh [22][26]. - Warehouse Receipts: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased. As of August 14, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50693 lots, a week - on - week increase of 113 lots [28][30]. - Downstream Products of Industrial Silicon - Organic Silicon: The production and operating rate increased. As of August 7, 2025, the weekly production was 5.12 tons, up 7.11%, and the operating rate was 77.4%, up 6.46%. However, the cost decreased, the spot price dropped, and the profit slightly declined [32][34][42]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price rose, and the inventory increased significantly. As of August 14, 2025, the price was 20300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 4.94 tons, up 0.1 tons from last week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to remain weak [44][49]. - Polysilicon - Related Products - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: The prices were flat, and the demand for polysilicon remained unchanged, which is expected to drag down the polysilicon market [51][53]. - Polysilicon Industry: The cost decreased, the profit and production increased, and the industry is gradually improving. As of August 14, 2025, the profit was 6990 yuan/ton, and the average cost was 40010 yuan/ton [58][61].