农产品早报-20250815

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: In the short - term, with reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching, the market supply increases slightly and prices weaken, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, potential import increases and lower new - season production costs may pressure prices [1] - Starch: In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to raw material price changes and high inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [2] - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties, and there may be a rebound. Domestically, Zheng sugar follows raw sugar with a smaller amplitude, and the upcoming large - scale arrival of imported sugar creates upward pressure on the market [5] - Cotton: The market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the downside of cotton prices is limited [6] - Eggs: After a rebound and a subsequent correction, demand is expected to pick up in mid - August, but high inventory may restrict the price increase [7] - Apples: The new - season production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are currently stable [9] - Pigs: Spot prices rebounded on weekends, but demand has not improved significantly. There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices await spot verification [9] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn - This week, 592,500 tons of imported corn were auctioned, with 117,700 tons sold. In the short - term, reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching ease the market, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, potential import increases and lower production costs may affect prices [1] Starch - This week, starch prices decreased slightly, and production remained unprofitable. In the short - term, prices fluctuate with raw materials, and high inventory leads to a weak outlook. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material costs are bearish factors [2] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties due to low yields and sugar - extraction rates. Domestically, Zheng sugar follows raw sugar, and the upcoming arrival of imported sugar creates upward pressure [5] Cotton - The market is in a consolidation phase. Without major macro - risks, the downside of cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to demand changes [6] Eggs - In mid - July, egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand factors, then corrected. In mid - August, demand is expected to pick up, but high inventory may restrict price increases [7] Apples - The new - season apples are in the growth phase. Western regions may have increased yields, while Shandong may see a 20% reduction. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable [9] Pigs - Spot prices rebounded on weekends due to reduced supply in some areas. Demand has not improved, and there is medium - term supply pressure. Futures prices await spot verification [9]