原油成品油早报-20250815

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the absolute price of crude oil dropped to $65 per barrel for Brent. The monthly spreads of crude oil in the three markets slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced due to the possible misunderstanding of Russia's cease - fire requirements by the US envoy and Iran's actions. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week, with a slight reduction in US commercial crude oil and refined products inventories. After the crude oil price decline, global refinery profits rebounded. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Supply faces a decline risk due to sanctions on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, supporting the monthly spread. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed, and the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with a forecasted decline to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production start - up rhythm [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, WTI crude oil price increased by $1.31, BRENT by $1.21, and DUBAI by $0.76. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, domestic gasoline, and domestic diesel also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The "Putin - Trump meeting" is set to be held at an Alaska US military base, with no plan to sign a results document. The US Treasury issued a waiver for the meeting. The uncertainty of the US - Russia peace negotiation increases the bullish risk premium for oil prices. Indian state - owned refineries are inquiring about purchasing Russian oil as the discount improves. Despite increased drone attacks on Russian refineries, Russia's oil product exports increased in early August, with fuel oil shipments reaching the highest level since the conflict began, offsetting the decline in diesel shipments [4][5]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels (a 0.72% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels (a 0.06% increase). From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China slightly increased, and that of Shandong local refineries remained basically flat. China's refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with corresponding changes in inventories and profits [5].