有色早报-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of long overseas and short domestic positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and long overseas and short domestic positions; in the long term, pay attention to actual demand as overseas supply is the main variable [2]. - For zinc, in the short term, it shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment. Long overseas and short domestic positions can be continued to hold, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of inter - month long positions [3]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average. The opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. In the short term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectations, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [12]. - For lead, it is expected that battery manufacturers will replenish their stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [13]. - For tin, in the short term, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as there are both raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [14]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the supply - demand balance has been achieved in August, and it may turn to surplus if one of the southwest region or Hesheng reaches full production. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, it will still oscillate at a low level [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices were supported around 78,000 yuan, and downstream purchasing improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and low domestic refined - scrap spreads, copper prices were strong, attempting to break through 79,000 yuan on Friday night [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. August is a seasonal off - peak for demand, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand declined significantly. In August, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while imported TC is rising slowly. In August, the increase in smelting production was further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand weakened seasonally, and most spot prices outside Shanghai turned to discounts. Overseas, European demand is average, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventory is rising, while overseas LME inventory is decreasing rapidly [3]. Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged [8]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have cut production passively, and some in the north are affected by the parade. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged [12]. Lead - This week, lead prices declined. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries is tight. The recycling rate of recycled lead remains low. On the demand side, the inventory of finished batteries is high, and the market's expectation of the peak season has fallen short of reality. The domestic social inventory is rising, and LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased [13]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fees at the mine end are low, and some domestic smelters are reducing production and entering the maintenance period. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but the recruitment is difficult. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the terminal electronics and photovoltaic sectors are expected to slow down. Domestic inventory is rising, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level, with a risk of short - squeezing [14]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, the supply - demand balance has been achieved in August, and it may turn to surplus if one of the southwest region or Hesheng reaches full production. In the long - term, the over - capacity situation is still serious, and it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, due to resource - end compliance disturbances and the approaching downstream peak season, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the long - term, if the resource - end risk is resolved, it will still oscillate at a low level [19].