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红枣市场周报:减产预期支撑,红枣偏强震荡-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 09:36

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market sentiment of red dates has improved, and the inventory reduction process is progressing well. The new season's crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, with an expected production decline of 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, and an estimated new - season production of 56 - 62 million tons. Overall, the improving trading atmosphere and expected reduction in new - season production support the upward trend of red date futures prices. Technically, the red date 2601 contract is in an upward channel, and it is recommended to conduct long - biased trading [8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Trend: This week, the price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% [8][11]. - Inventory Status: As of the 32nd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease, and a 72.62% year - on - year increase [8]. - Production Forecast: The new - season production is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% compared to 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated production of 56 - 62 million tons [8]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to conduct long - biased trading, with the support level for the red date 2601 contract at 11,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Future Trading Reminders: Weather and consumption are the key factors to watch [8]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Price: The price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% this week [8][11]. - Futures Position: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red date futures was - 16,035 lots [15]. - Futures Warehouse Receipt: As of this week, the number of red date warehouse receipts was 9,214 [17]. - Futures Spread: As of this week, the spread between the 2605 and 2601 contracts of red date futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 140 yuan/ton [21]. - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey dates and the main red date futures contract was - 1,095 yuan/ton [22]. - Purchase Price: As of August 15, 2025, the unified purchase prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - First - Grade Spot Price: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.60 yuan/jin and 4.75 yuan/jin respectively [29]. - Extra - Grade Spot Price: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of extra - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 10.45 yuan/kg and 10.5 yuan/kg respectively [33]. Industrial Chain Conditions - Supply - Inventory: As of the 33rd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, and a 79.94% year - on - year increase [38]. - Supply - Production: The 2024/25 production season of red dates is expected to see a recovery in production as the crops are growing well [43]. - Demand - Export: In June 2025, China's red date exports were 1,765,107 kilograms, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 17,115,674 kilograms, an 11.50% month - on - month increase [46]. - Demand - Trading: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Red Date Good Brand had no trading volume [50]. Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week was presented, but no specific data was provided [52]. - Stock Market: Information about the price - earnings ratio of HaoXiangNi was presented, but no specific data was provided [54].