苹果市场周报：苹果偏强震荡，关注早熟上色上市情况-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 increased by 1.37%. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple production in the new season will be 37.3664 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.35%. As of August 13, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, with a slightly slower shipping speed. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is not large, but the overall shipping speed has slowed down. With the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples, it may restrain the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on Apple Futures Contract 2510 and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - maturing apples [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 rose 1.37% this week [6][11]. - Market Outlook: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons (2.35%) compared to the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from last week. The shipping speed slowed slightly. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is small, but the overall shipping speed has slowed. The supply of bagged Gala apples in the western region is increasing, but the purchasing enthusiasm of buyers is average. Low inventory supports prices, but the increasing supply of Gala apples may restrict price increases [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on Apple Futures Contract 2510 [7]. - Future Trading Tips: Monitor the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 increased by 1.37% this week. As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 futures holders was 3,167 lots, and the number of futures warrants was 0 [11][16]. - Spot Market: As of August 15, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan per jin; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per jin [19]. 3. Industry Conditions and Options - Supply Side: As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from last week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased by 1.06%, 0.47%, and 0.48% respectively compared to last week [26]. - Demand Side: - As of August 14, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.4 yuan per jin [30]. - As of August 8, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.51 yuan per kilogram, a 1.65% decrease from the previous period; the average wholesale price of all apples was 9.69 yuan per kilogram, a 0.62% decrease [35]. - As of August 8, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.01 yuan per kilogram, a 1.27% decrease from the previous period [39]. - In June 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 40,000 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous month and a 38.6% decrease from the same period last year [42]. - Substitute Products: As of August 8, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.01 yuan per kilogram, a 1.27% decrease from the previous period [39]. - Options Market: The document only mentions the implied volatility chart of at - the - money apple options this week, without specific data [43]. 4. Futures - Stock Correlation - The document only provides a chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, without specific data [47].