鸡蛋市场周报：现货回暖幅度有限，近月期价继续走低-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market has continued to decline this week, with the 2510 contract closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens from previous supplementary stocking is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather has increased the substitutes for egg consumption, leading to low market demand for eggs. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the near - term contracts, the futures prices generally maintain a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, while the long - term contracts are relatively more resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is to participate in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - The 2510 contract of eggs continued to decline, closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens is large. Cold - storage eggs are continuously released, increasing supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and substitutes for egg consumption are increasing. The spot price is lower than expected, and the breeding end is in a loss state [8]. - With school opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement, demand may pick up, potentially driving up egg prices. Near - term contracts tend to be weak, while long - term contracts are relatively resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is short - term participation [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 315,692 lots, an increase of 110,551 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 33,540, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - Futures Warehouse Receipt: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 3 [18]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was reported at 3,066 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 180 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 116 yuan per ton [24]. - Futures Inter - monthly Spread: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 393 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related Product Spot Prices: As of August 14, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.74 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - Supply - side Indicators: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - Elimination Indicators: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national average age of eliminated chickens was 501 days [45]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3,020 yuan per ton [49]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of August 8, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.31 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - Prices of Egg - laying Chicken Chicks and Eliminated Chickens: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main producing areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated chickens in the main producing areas was 11.34 yuan per kilogram [60]. - Egg Monthly Export Volume: In May 2025, China's total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons or 7.87% year - on - year compared to 11,784.06 tons in the same period of the previous year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared to 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [66]. 3.4. Representative Enterprise - A simple introduction to Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific content mainly shows the change in its price - earnings ratio, and no in - depth analysis is given [68].