Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. Internationally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are good, leading to a loose global supply expectation. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement, causing the raw sugar price to fluctuate widely at a short - term low. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the demand for cold drinks is in the peak season, and the double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not large due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, but the increase in the number of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The new sugar - pressing season's output is expected to remain at the highest level in the past four years. Overall, the low - level fluctuation of the outer market affects the domestic market to fluctuate repeatedly. Fundamentally, the import is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the customs import data in July. The supply in the new sugar - pressing season is expected to be stable with a slight increase. Although short - term double - festival stocking provides support, it will still face pressure in the future. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short. Future factors to watch include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Trend: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. The international raw sugar price fluctuated widely at a low level, and the domestic market was affected by it. The import pressure was released, and the supply would increase temporarily in September. The demand was expected to increase, and the de - stocking process slowed down [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short [8]. - Future Focus: Consumption situation, exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.05%. As of August 5, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.90% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.22% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 23.85% month - on - month. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 29,055 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 17,104 [10][20]. - Spot Market: As of August 8, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.36 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. As of August 15, the price of Guangxi Liuzhou sugar was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of Yunnan Kunming sugar was 5,860 yuan per ton. As of August 13, 2025, the out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar was 5,786 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Thai sugar was 5,901 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the in - quota price was 4,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. As of August 13, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,324 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.84%; the out - of - quota profit was 90 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 164.71%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,236 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%; the out - quota profit was - 25 yuan per ton [13][26][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had ended, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons and a growth rate of 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [36][40][44]. - Demand Side: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the cumulative sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%; the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - Option Market: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of white sugar this week is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [54]. - Stock Market: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [58].
白糖市场周报：外盘宽幅震荡，影响国内波动反复-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 10:24