Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the pace of economic recovery slowed, with marginal weakening on both the supply and demand sides. New policies in August may drive future economic data to rebound. The bond market currently lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect may intensify, and in the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of the widening term spread brought about by the steepening of the curve [93][94] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - This week, the Treasury bond futures contracts of all maturities declined. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.54%, 0.32%, 0.17%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest of the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased [12][29] 2. News Review and Analysis - Policy: The three - department jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the nine - department including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities" [7] - Domestic economic data: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.63% year - on - year. The unemployment rate remained the same year - on - year. In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase in the reduction of 310 billion yuan; the social financing increment in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 389.3 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July was 5.6%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [8] - Overseas economic data: In the US, the CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%. The PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. The number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than expected. The US continued to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [9] - Exchange rate: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1371, with a cumulative depreciation of 34 basis points this week [9] - Capital situation: This week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48% [9] 3. Chart Analysis - Spread changes: The yield spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year bonds and that between the 10 - year and 1 - year bonds slightly widened. The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts and that between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract fluctuated, and that of the 30 - year contract slightly widened. The inter - period spread of the 2 - year contract fluctuated, and that of the 5 - year contract narrowed [42][46][50] - Treasury bond futures main contract position changes: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract slightly increased [63] - Interest rate changes: The Shibor rates of overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month terms all increased. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48%. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 1 - 5bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by about 5bp and 6bp to 1.74% and 1.99% respectively. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed, and that of 30 - year Treasury bonds slightly narrowed [67][71] - Central bank open - market operations: This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases totaled 711.8 billion yuan, with 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48% [74] - Bond issuance and maturity: This week, the bond issuance was 1.75934 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.559795 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 201.345 billion yuan [77] - Market sentiment: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1371, with a cumulative depreciation of 34 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond strengthened slightly, and the VIX index decreased slightly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [82][87][90] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestically, the economic recovery in July slowed down, but new policies in August may drive future economic data to rebound. Overseas, the sharp rise in the US PPI in July has frustrated the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Currently, the bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect may intensify. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of the widening term spread brought about by the steepening of the curve [93][94]
期债全线下跌，长端陡峭下行
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 10:21