永安期货集运早报-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current major contradiction in the EC market is the decline rate during the off - season, affected by uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [2][17] - In terms of fundamentals, in Week 33, the collection situation of the MSK improved, OA was average, and PA was poor; in Week 34, the collection significantly declined [2][17] - EMC canceled its independent ship in Week 35, and OA added a sailing suspension in Week 39. The weekly average capacities in August, September, and October 2025 (tentatively) are still high, with a slight decline [2][17] - Currently, the October contract is at a large discount to the spot. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks is in line with market expectations. The decline of the December contract did not drive the market down further. Due to the high liquidity and the support from continuous position - shifting, but the overall future drive is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to hold the short position of the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, trading volume of 92, open interest of 2556, and a change in open interest of - 73 [2][17] - EC2510: Closing price of 1359.5, change of 1.98%, trading volume of 32077, open interest of 56698, and a change in open interest of - 4042 [2][17] - EC2512: Closing price of 1723.3, change of 1.36%, trading volume of 6322, open interest of 11131, and a change in open interest of - 334 [2][17] - EC2602: Closing price of 1521.4, change of 2.24%, trading volume of 1393, open interest of 4424, and a change in open interest of - 35 [2][17] - EC2604: Closing price of 1335.0, change of 0.48%, trading volume of 1327, open interest of 5459, and a change in open interest of - 92 [2][17] - EC2606: Closing price of 1495.0, change of 1.49%, trading volume of 107, open interest of 832, and a change in open interest of 7 [2][17] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The spread was 724.4, with a day - on - day change of - 25.5 [2][17] - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 363.8, with a day - on - day change of 3.2 [2][17] - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 201.9, with a day - on - day change of - 10.2 [2][17] Spot Index Information - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Mondays. On August 11, 2025, it was 2235.48 points, with a decline of 2.71% from the previous period and a decline of 0.81% in the previous period [2][17] - SCH (European line): Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1961 dollars/TEU, with a decline of 4.39% from the previous period and a decline of 1.87% in the previous period [2][17] - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1799.05 points, with a change of 0 - 3% from the previous period and an increase of 0.13% in the previous period [2][17] - NCFI: On August 8, 2025, it was 1257.71 points, with a decline of 8.57% from the previous period and a decline of 3.53% in the previous period [2][17] Recent European Line Quotations - Week 34: Shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance was 2700 dollars, MSK was 2600 dollars, and OA Alliance was 2900 - 3000 dollars [3][18] - Week 35: The current average shipping company quotation is 2630 dollars (1800 points). MSK opened at 2200 dollars. HPL dropped 400 dollars to 2435 dollars, EMC dropped 200 dollars to 2934 dollars. On Thursday, HMM dropped 200 dollars to 2500 dollars, OOCL dropped 300 dollars to 2800 dollars, and ONE dropped 200 dollars to 2508 dollars [3][18] Related News - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel [3][18] - On August 14, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that there must be a non - Israeli, peaceful, and non - armed government in Gaza after the war [3][18] Index Release Delay - The release of the XSI - C index was delayed by three working days [4][19]