油脂油料产业日报-20250815

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Report Date: August 15, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views Oils - Palm Oil: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are strongly supported by favorable export data, with expectations to break through the 4500 ringgit resistance level. However, concerns about increasing production in the second half of the month and potential inventory growth at the end of the month may lead to a slowdown in the 4500 - 4580 ringgit range. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are also on a strong, volatile trend, testing the 9500 yuan mark. If it can hold above this level, it may reach 9700 yuan by the end of the month. Otherwise, it could retreat to the 9000 - 9200 yuan range. Both international and domestic markets are expected to maintain a near - strong, far - weak pattern [3]. - Soybean Oil: Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and basis quotes remain mostly stable. Some regions have seen good contract sales for October and later due to uncertainty about soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter. With the start of school in August and Mid - Autumn Festival preparations, market demand is increasing, and short - term futures consolidation may support a slight increase in basis quotes [3]. Oilseeds - Soybean Meal: South American soybean premiums have declined, and the sharp drop in rapeseed meal futures has led some institutions to take profits. The main contract of Dalian soybean meal has filled the previous gap and may strengthen again after stabilizing in the 3100 - 3120 range. Spot prices have decreased by 30 - 60 yuan/ton, but due to narrowing crushing margins and a lag in spot price increases, the downward adjustment space for traders is limited. Short - term domestic soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing, and the price trend is upward [14]. Summary by Directory Oils Month - to - Month and Variety Spreads - Palm Oil: P 1 - 5 spread is 282 yuan/ton, down 38; P 5 - 9 is - 208 yuan/ton, up 46; P 9 - 1 is - 74 yuan/ton, down 8. - Soybean Oil: Y 1 - 5 spread is 442 yuan/ton, down 16; Y 5 - 9 is - 462 yuan/ton, up 12; Y 9 - 1 is 20 yuan/ton, up 4. - Variety Spreads: Y - P 01 is - 848 yuan/ton, up 66; Y - P 05 is - 1008 yuan/ton, up 44; Y - P 09 is - 754 yuan/ton, up 78. Y/M and OI/RM spreads also show various changes [4]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 9460 yuan/ton, up 0.98%; Palm oil 05 is 9180 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; Palm oil 09 is 9394 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. - International price: BMD palm oil main contract is 4412 ringgit/ton, up 0.2%. - Spot price: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9320 yuan/ton, up 10. The basis is - 58 yuan/ton, down 104 [5]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8534 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; Soybean oil 05 is 8098 yuan/ton, down 0.81%; Soybean oil 09 is 8562 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. - International price: CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.11 cents/pound, down 2.42%. - Spot price: Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8580 yuan/ton, down 60. The basis is 120 yuan/ton, up 56 [11]. Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean Meal: Bean meal 01 is 3137, down 20 (- 0.63%); Bean meal 05 is 2822, down 23 (- 0.81%); Bean meal 09 is 3083, down 17 (- 0.55%). - Rapeseed Meal: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2546, down 60 (- 2.3%); Rapeseed meal 05 is 2487, down 36 (- 1.43%); Rapeseed meal 09 is 2649, down 37 (- 1.38%). - CBOT Soybeans: 1031, unchanged. - Offshore RMB: 7.1812, up 0.0011 (0.02%) [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Soybean Meal: M01 - 05 spread is 312, down 1; M05 - 09 is - 255, up 1; M09 - 01 is - 57, unchanged. - Rapeseed Meal: RM01 - 05 spread is 83, down 29; RM05 - 09 is - 163, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 80, up 45. - Spot and Futures Spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is 484, up 10; the futures spread is 471, up 31 [16][18].