Report Date - The report is dated August 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Steel: After the coal mine safety meeting, the hype sentiment for coking coal cooled, leading to a correction in the black sector. This week, the supply of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but overall inventory is low, and there is support from low - price buyers. The short - term market optimism has cooled, and the upper resistance for the rebar October contract is between 3250 - 3300. However, due to the expected supply contraction, the downside space is limited, with support at around 3100 for the rebar October contract (around 3350 for hot - rolled coils). The short - term disk is expected to be oscillating weakly [3] - Iron Ore: Market supervision has tightened, and speculative sentiment has declined. The price of iron ore was dragged down by the sharp drop in coking coal. The fundamentals of iron ore are currently stable, with short - term supply being neutral and iron - making water production expected to remain stable. Production restrictions have a limited impact on near - month demand. Steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, supporting the price. The price is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [19] - Coking Coal and Coke: There have been frequent reports of supply disruptions in Shanxi coal mines. The "anti - involution" in the coal industry will be the trading focus in the third quarter. However, the incremental substitution effect of imports cannot be ignored. The supply - demand of coking coal has returned to a tight - balance pattern. The long - term outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events [29] - Ferroalloys: The price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Currently, steel mill profits are good, and high iron - making water production supports ferroalloy demand. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is weak. In the short term, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction [46] - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, with daily production fluctuating around 106,000 - 107,000 tons. The demand for soda ash is expected to remain weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory has reached a new high, putting pressure on the spot price. The cost has increased slightly with the strong coal price. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [56] - Glass: The near - term trading has returned to industrial reality, and policy expectations may fluctuate. The daily melting volume of the supply side is stable at around 159,000 - 160,000 tons. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by 7%. The market is in a weak - balance state. The downstream inventory is at a high level, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [82] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures Prices: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3269 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 3314 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 3188 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3432 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 3439 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 3439 yuan/ton [4] - Spot Prices: On August 15, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3386 yuan/ton, in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, in Beijing was 3290 yuan/ton, in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3460 yuan/ton, in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, and in Shenyang was 3400 yuan/ton [9] - Basis and Spread: The 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 51 yuan/ton, the 05 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 6 yuan/ton, and the 10 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 132 yuan/ton. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 28 yuan/ton, the 05 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 21 yuan/ton, and the 10 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 21 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - screw spread was 163 yuan/ton, the 05 roll - screw spread was 125 yuan/ton, and the 10 roll - screw spread was 251 yuan/ton [9][13] Iron Ore - Futures Prices: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 776 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 755.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 792 yuan/ton [20] - Basis and Spot Prices: The 01 basis was - 4 yuan/ton, the 05 basis was 18 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis was - 20 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 772 yuan/ton, Rizhao Carajás fines was 879 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Super Special was 646 yuan/ton [20] - Fundamentals: The daily average iron - making water production was 240,660 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3467 million tons, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.31 million tons, the global shipping volume was 3.0467 billion tons, the Australia - Brazil shipping volume was 2.4277 billion tons, the 45 - port arrival volume was 2.3819 billion tons, the 45 - port inventory was 138.1927 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - Cost and Basis: On August 15, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 222.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1605 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 124.6 yuan/ton [34] - Spot Prices: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 996 yuan/ton, and the CFR price of Australian Peak Downs North was 203.5 US dollars/wet ton. The ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - primary wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - primary dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: On August 15, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 132 yuan/ton, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 126 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [47] - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 124 yuan/ton, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5800 yuan/ton [49] Soda Ash - Futures Prices and Spreads: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1450 yuan/ton, the 09 contract was 1293 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract was 1395 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 157 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [57] - Basis and Spot Prices: The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 116 yuan/ton. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the light - alkali market price was 1250 yuan/ton [57][60] Glass - Futures Prices and Spreads: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1309 yuan/ton, the 09 contract was 1046 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract was 1211 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 263 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan/ton [83] - Basis and Sales: The 05 contract basis (Shahe) was - 148 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis (Shahe) was 98.6 yuan/ton. On August 11, 2025, the Shahe sales rate was 82%, the Hubei sales rate was 56%, the East China sales rate was 87%, and the South China sales rate was 99% [83][84]
黑色产业链日报-20250815
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-15 13:07