Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Sugar: Global sugar stocks are increasing due to more new - sugar supply from Brazil, but high domestic sugar sales - to - production ratio provides support. International raw sugar prices are dragged down by speculative selling, while Pakistan's purchase of 200,000 tons of sugar improves demand expectations. In the domestic market, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking boosts spot sales, but the pressure on processing sugar mills to sell and increased imports create negative factors. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - Cotton: The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices. With the expected tightening of global inventory in the new season, domestic and international cotton prices may be strong in the short term. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream stocking willingness may improve, and cotton prices may rise with the recovery of demand [13]. - Jujube: New - season grey jujube production is expected to decline compared to last year and may be lower than normal, but the decline rate is uncertain. As the festival season approaches, downstream stocking and the sentiment of production reduction may drive up jujube prices in the short term. However, due to high old - jujube inventory and unclear production, it is not advisable to chase high prices [18]. - Apple: The sales of apples are limited by the impact of seasonal fruits. In Shandong, apple packaging is restricted by the busy farming season, and in Shaanxi, the supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi with most secondary - producing areas cleared of inventory. New - season paper - bag Gala apples are on the market with good prices [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Futures Prices and Spreads: On August 15, 2025, SR01 closed at 5664 with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly increase of 1.63%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - Basis: On August 14, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 321, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 64. Different locations and contracts had different basis values [8]. - Import Prices: On August 15, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4552, with a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly increase of 169. The out - of - quota price was 5786, with a daily decrease of 32 and a weekly increase of 222 [11]. Cotton - Futures Prices: On August 15, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 14120, down 35 or 0.25%. Other cotton and cotton yarn contracts also had price changes [14]. - Spreads: The cotton basis was 1096, up 37. Different cotton contract spreads and the spread between cotton and yarn also showed changes [15]. Jujube - Futures Month - spreads: The report presents the historical trends of jujube futures month - spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) from 2022 - 2025 [19]. Apple - Futures and Spot Prices: On August 15, 2025, AP01 closed at 8028, with a daily increase of 0.55% and a weekly increase of 1.13%. Spot prices in different regions remained stable, and there were also changes in futures spreads, basis, and profit [24]. - Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of national, Shaanxi, and Shandong apple cold - storage inventories from 2022 - 2025 [27][28].
东亚期货软商品日报-20250815
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-15 13:10