Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - USDA's reduction of the US soybean area has led to a decline in production, potentially causing a contraction in global supply in the fourth quarter. The US soybean is about to enter the harvest period, and attention should be paid to the harvest progress. The expected US soybean inventory may decrease. [5] - The domestic spot price of Dalian soybean meal has stopped falling and stabilized. As the US soybean strengthens, the import cost has increased, and the domestic short - term price has slightly strengthened. Later, attention should be paid to domestic imports. Insufficient vessel bookings for the October shipment may lead to a decline in inventory later. [5] - Affected by the domestic pig "anti - involution" policy (weakening soybean meal demand) and the procurement of Argentine soybean meal by leading enterprises (strengthening supply), the uncertainty of the results of China - US trade consultations may cause significant fluctuations. China's anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in later imports. [5] - In the spot market, affected by the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed meal has a price but no volume. The overall domestic inventory is low, and the market is worried about future supply contraction. It is regarded as bullish in the medium term. [5] - International factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, poor progress in China - US negotiations, and the weakening of crude oil may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. Domestically, the oil mills have a large inventory pressure of soybean oil, and the demand for biodiesel is variable. The decline in crude oil may be negative for oils and fats. [38] - In the current rapeseed sector, there is a lack of new themes, the inventory depletion is slow during the off - season of demand, and the futures price is under pressure. However, the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decline in rapeseed oil supply. [40] - The Indonesian B50 plan has been delayed, which may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. The inventory accumulation in the MPOB report is less than expected, and the overseas palm oil supply pressure has slightly eased, but the seasonal inventory accumulation has not ended. Overseas biodiesel may be weakened by the decline in crude oil, which is short - term negative for oils and fats. Domestically, the inventory is high, accumulating month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation is weakening. The increase in import cost drives the price. If the overseas market weakens, the domestic market is expected to follow the decline. [46] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal and Related - US Soybean: USDA has reduced the US soybean area, leading to a decline in production and a potential contraction in global supply in the fourth quarter. The US soybean is about to enter the harvest period, and the inventory is expected to decrease. [5] - Dalian Soybean Meal: The domestic spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. With the strengthening of the US soybean, the import cost has increased, and the short - term price has slightly strengthened. There may be a decline in inventory later due to insufficient vessel bookings for the October shipment. [5] - Domestic Factors Affecting Soybean Meal: The "anti - involution" policy for pigs and the procurement of Argentine soybean meal by leading enterprises, along with the uncertainty of China - US trade consultations, may cause price fluctuations. [5] Rapeseed Meal and Related - Spot Market: Affected by anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed meal has a price but no volume, with low inventory and concerns about future supply contraction. It is bullish in the medium term. [5] Oils and Fats Soybean Oil - Futures and Market: International factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, poor China - US negotiations, and weak crude oil may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. Domestically, oil mills have large inventory pressure, and the demand for biodiesel is variable. The decline in crude oil is negative for soybean oil. [38] - Spot Market: This week's procurement was light, and the average daily factory sales decreased week - on - week. After August, due to the support of procurement costs, the basis is difficult to adjust easily. Although a large amount of Brazilian soybeans have arrived at ports, there is uncertainty in China - US negotiations and soybean imports in the fourth quarter. [38] Palm Oil - International and Domestic Situation: The Indonesian B50 plan delay may weaken the biodiesel expectation. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is less than expected, and overseas supply pressure has slightly eased, but seasonal inventory accumulation continues. Overseas biodiesel may be weakened by crude oil decline, which is short - term negative for palm oil. Domestically, inventory is high and accumulating, and supply - demand is weakening. Higher import costs drive prices, and if overseas weakens, domestic may follow. [46] Rapeseed Oil - Market Situation: There is a lack of new themes in the rapeseed sector, slow inventory depletion during the off - season of demand, and the futures price is under pressure. However, anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply. In the spot market, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, terminal acceptance is low, and transactions are weak in many places, with the basis continuing to decline slightly. [40][41]
油料周报-20250817
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-17 00:46