策略周报：股债跷跷板还能持续多久？-20250817

Group 1 - The report indicates that the probability of a significant decline in the bond market is low, suggesting opportunities for allocation at high interest rate levels. Historical patterns show that since 2016, prolonged bull markets in stocks and bear markets in bonds have only occurred three times, driven by economic recovery and tightening liquidity [3][18] - The report forecasts that the yield on 10-year government bonds will remain in the range of 1.65% to 1.75% in the short term, recommending gradual allocation above 1.72%, prioritizing credit bonds over interest rate bonds and convertible bonds [3][18] Group 2 - The stock market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with incremental capital continuously entering the market. The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on large and mid-cap industry leaders, particularly in technology, new energy, cyclical sectors, pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend themes [4][19] - The report notes that the market's "money-moving" logic is strengthening, and the market's profitability effect is expanding, indicating a high probability of short-term gains. However, it also warns that the potential for high valuations in low-tier sectors has been released, suggesting a need to optimize existing holdings rather than chase high prices [4][19] Group 3 - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is expected to maintain its upward trend in the short term, driven by the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts. However, it also notes that any unexpected hawkish stance from the Fed could limit market buffer space [13][19] - The report emphasizes that the labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, which could heighten concerns about a "hard landing" for the economy, potentially disrupting the upward momentum of U.S. stocks [19][19] Group 4 - The report provides insights into the performance of domestic macro multi-asset models, indicating a year-to-date return of 7.77%, exceeding the benchmark by 4.33%. The Sharpe ratio for this model stands at 2.2550, significantly higher than the benchmark's ratio [26][27] - The global macro multi-asset model also shows a year-to-date return of 7.70%, with an excess return of 4.26% over the benchmark, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.8928, again surpassing the benchmark [26][27]