美银：亚洲基金经理月度调研

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the global economy, with a net 41% of investors expecting a weaker global economy, up from 31% last month, and a net 31% anticipating a weaker Asian economy, slightly down from 26% last month [2][4]. Core Insights - Despite a moderation in earnings outlook, market return expectations remain resilient, with 90% of investors expecting higher levels for Asia ex-Japan equities over the next year, as consensus earnings estimates are not seen as stretched, allowing for potential upgrades [3][23]. - The sentiment towards China has improved, with a net 3% expecting a weaker economy, a significant improvement from 10% last month, driven by expectations of further policy support from Beijing to combat deflation [4][25]. - Japan is the most favored market, with expectations of a rate hike before March next year, while China has moved to the second spot, followed by Taiwan and Korea, with India falling to the bottom due to tariff concerns [5][51]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Growth expectations have slightly pulled back due to concerns over the US labor market and tariffs, with a net 41% of investors expecting a weaker global economy [2][14]. - Long-term views on China remain cautious, with 60% of investors believing in a structural de-rating of China equities [27][28]. Country Allocation - Japan is favored significantly, with corporate reforms and currency movements seen as key to its equity prospects [5][40]. - China has gained favor, particularly in sectors like AI and semiconductors, while India is focused on infrastructure and consumption [58][60]. Sector Preferences - In Asia ex-Japan, there is a growth bias with overweight positions in tech hardware, semiconductors, software, and financial services, while materials, autos, energy, and real estate are avoided [6][53]. - In Japan, banks are the most preferred sector, benefiting from higher rates, followed by semiconductors [7][48]. Investment Themes - Within China, AI and semiconductors are popular investment themes, while in India, infrastructure is the top focus [58][60]. - The semiconductor cycle outlook has moderated, with a net 20% of investors expecting a stronger cycle in the next 12 months [66].