大越期货尿素早报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation, with high daily production and inventory, and weak demand in both the industrial and agricultural sectors. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, and after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the trend returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and overall high inventory. In the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand significantly. The export profit has declined but is still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to be volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - Bullish Factors: The international urea price is strong [5]. - Bearish Factors: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - Main Logic: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2747 [6]. | | Futures | The price of the 01 contract is 1737 (+11), the basis is 73 (-11), UR05 is 1783 (+12), and UR09 is 1721 (+6) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 3573 (-250), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.459 million tons, UR factory inventory is 1.019 million tons, and UR port inventory is 440,000 tons [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]