大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to trend sideways today. The "anti-involution" policy-driven price increases have subsided, crude oil prices are falling, and while downstream demand for PP is slightly improving, the overall demand for LLDPE's agricultural film is below expectations, with neutral industrial inventories [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, in contraction for four consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The "anti-involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it reverted to fundamentals. Short-term oil prices are oscillating downward. On the supply and demand side, the overall demand for agricultural film is below expectations, and the film production start-up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,250 (-30), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -101, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), considered neutral [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral stance [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. After the "anti-involution" policy-driven price increase subsided, crude oil prices fell, and the demand for agricultural film was below expectations. With neutral industrial inventories, the PE market is expected to trend sideways today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand and falling crude oil prices are negative factors. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in July, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were in contraction. Exports increased year-on-year. The "anti-involution" policy's impact faded. Short-term oil prices are falling. On the supply and demand side, downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7,100 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 16, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral stance [7]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating. After the "anti-involution" policy-driven price increase subsided, crude oil prices fell, while downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. With neutral industrial inventories, the PP market is expected to trend sideways today [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand and falling crude oil prices are negative factors. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [9]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7,250 (-30), the 01 contract price is 7,351 (+8), the basis is -101 (-38), the warehouse receipt quantity is 7,345 (unchanged), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 505,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 7,100 (unchanged), the 01 contract price is 7,084 (-1), the basis is 16 (+1), the warehouse receipt quantity is 12,860 (unchanged), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 588,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].