沪锌期货早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 is expected to be weak with oscillations. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc moving in an oscillatory manner, closing with a small positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions adding, with the short side increasing slightly more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, while short - term indicators like KDJ are declining, and the trend indicators show that the long and short forces are in a stalemate [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc is 22480, and the basis is - 50, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 15, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1125 tons to 76325 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2923 tons to 20020 tons compared to the previous day. The social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets has been increasing from August 4 to August 14 [2][6]. 3.4 Market Quotes - On August 15, the trading data of zinc futures contracts with different delivery months on the futures exchange showed various price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the 2510 contract had an opening price of 22500, a high of 22600, a low of 22485, and a closing price of 22530, with a trading volume of 69906 lots and an open interest of 91064 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market - On August 15, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic main spot markets, such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, etc., showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [4]. 3.6 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On August 15, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters, including Hunan Zhuhongminrong, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 60 yuan/ton [16]. 3.7 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470300 tons [18]. 3.8 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 15, zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions and for imports showed different price ranges and changes. For example, the import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate increased by 5 dollars per thousand tons [20]. 3.9 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2510 on August 15, in terms of trading volume, ranking, and changes of futures companies, as well as long and short position rankings and changes, the total trading volume of 20 futures companies was 105489 lots, an increase of 20251 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 66046 lots, an increase of 4841 lots, and the total short - position volume was 59406 lots, an increase of 5213 lots [21].