大越期货白糖早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Brazilian central - south region produced 19.27 million tons of sugar cumulatively by the end of July this crushing season, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. In China, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season as of the end of July 2025 was 11.1621 million tons, with cumulative sales of 9.5498 million tons and a sales rate of 85.6%. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June 2025, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, while the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4][5]. - The basis is 376 (for the 01 contract) with spot price in Liuzhou at 6040, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The industrial inventory as of the end of July in the 24/25 crushing season was 1.61 million tons, also bullish. The 20 - day moving average on the disk is flat, and the k - line is near it, a neutral signal. The main positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing and an unclear main trend, which is bearish. After a short - term rebound, the international sugar price has fallen back below 17 cents per pound. The SR01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 5700 in the short term [6]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US Coke formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price below 17 cents per pound opening the import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Brazilian central - south sugar production decreased by 7.8% year - on - year by the end of July this season. China's 24/25 season sugar production, sales, and import data are as mentioned above [4][5]. - Basis: The basis in Liuzhou is 376 (01 contract), bullish [6]. - Inventory: Industrial inventory as of the end of July was 1.61 million tons, bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the k - line is near it, neutral [6]. - Main Positions: Positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is unclear [6]. - Expectation: International sugar price rebounds briefly and then falls below 17 cents per pound. SR01 of Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate between 5600 - 5700 in the short term [6]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions predict a surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market, with Green Pool forecasting a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow 780,000 tons, and Datagro 258,000 tons [36]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: Sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.2 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.