大越期货贵金属早报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: US retail sales continued to grow significantly, and the US consumer confidence in August unexpectedly declined while long - and short - term inflation expectations climbed. With the smooth meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, the gold price showed a slight oscillation. The premium of Shanghai gold remained at 0.2 yuan/gram. The gold price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the meeting among the US, Ukraine, and Europe [4]. - Silver: As US retail sales continued to grow significantly and the meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine was successful, the silver price oscillated following the gold price. The premium of Shanghai silver remained at around 395 yuan/kg. The silver price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the meeting among the US, Ukraine, and Europe [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US retail sales continued to grow significantly, the three major US stock indices closed with mixed results, the three major European stock indices also closed with mixed results, the US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.11 basis points to 4.318%), the US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1891, and the COMEX gold futures fell 0.04% to $3381.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by the same macro - factors, the COMEX silver futures fell 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.39 (spot was at a discount to futures, neutral); the inventory of gold futures increased by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average (bearish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis, inventory, and other factors were also analyzed, but the specific content was not as detailed as that of gold. The silver price followed the gold price to oscillate [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - The US is to announce the expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, and the expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18; at 12:30, Japan's June tertiary industry activity index will be released; at 17:00, the eurozone's June unadjusted trade balance will be announced; at 22:00, the US August NAHB housing market index will be released; Trump will meet with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders in the Oval Office of the White House on the afternoon of the 18th [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation was affected by factors such as US retail sales, consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. The overall situation was neutral, and the price was expected to oscillate [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price oscillated following the gold price due to the significant growth of US retail sales and other factors [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 170 to 632,979 on August 15 compared with August 14, a decrease of 0.03%; the short - position volume decreased by 275 to 481,939, a decrease of 0.06%; the net position increased by 105 to 151,040, an increase of 0.07% [29]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 43,293 to 1,089,608 on August 15 compared with August 14, a decrease of 3.82%; the short - position volume decreased by 33,259 to 998,505, a decrease of 3.22%; the net position decreased by 10,034 to 91,103, a decrease of 9.92% [32].