Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the fundamentals show weak demand, low - level inventory with a slight decrease, and weak purchasing willingness of traders. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory in major cities shows a mixed trend (up环比, down同比), the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillation considering the weak real - estate market and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, and exports are blocked. Domestic policies may play a role. It has a positive basis, inventory in major cities is decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day line with the line going up, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The market is also expected to be in high - level oscillation due to supply - demand weakening, export issues, and capacity - reduction plans [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand is poor, downstream real - estate is in a downward cycle, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, and trader purchasing willingness is weak [2]. - Basis: The rebar spot price is 3320, and the basis is 132, which is positive [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities is 314.93 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is negative [2]. - Main Position: The main rebar position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is negative [2]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Positive factors include low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [2][3]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role, with a neutral assessment [6]. - Basis: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3460, and the basis is 21, which is positive [6]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities is 277.49 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is going up, with a neutral assessment [6]. - Main Position: The main hot - rolled coil position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is negative [6]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Positive factors are acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are that downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season and the outlook is pessimistic [6][7][8].
大越期货螺卷早报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:22