Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logic currently is that the global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. The main risk factor is El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [3][4]. - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,600, with a basis of 66, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [5]. - The spot price of palm oil is 9,500, with a basis of 40, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [5]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [5]. Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 143, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [6]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [6]. - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply - Imported soybean inventory [8] - Soybean oil inventory [10] - Soybean meal inventory [12] - Oil mill soybean crushing [14] - Palm oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed oil inventory [22] - Rapeseed inventory [24] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]
大越期货油脂早报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:19