沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel (2509), it is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply - demand situation shows an oversupply pattern, but short - term factors such as cost increases and potential consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October" need to be considered [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2510), it is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The short - term cost is rising slightly, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Nickel Futures: On August 15, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 15,195 yuan, up 145 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 1,850 yuan [12]. - Stainless Steel Futures: On August 15, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan [12]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 15, the LME nickel inventory was 211,662 tons, an increase of 522 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel warehouse receipts were 22,141 tons, an increase of 1,421 tons. The total inventory was 233,803 tons, an increase of 1,943 tons [15]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 15, the inventory in Wuxi was 61.01 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 314,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons [19]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 103,277 tons, a decrease of 244 tons [20]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 15, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 925.5 yuan per nickel point, up 1 yuan [23]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,901 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,587 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,384 yuan [25]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 122,636 yuan per ton [29]. 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - Positive Factors: The expected consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October", the anti - involution policy, the firm price of nickel ore, and the slight rebound of downstream ferronickel prices, which led to a slight upward shift in the cost line [7]. - Negative Factors: The continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, the lack of new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern, and the year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].