大越期货沪铝早报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum show that carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is changeable; the basis indicates a neutral situation with the spot price slightly higher than the futures price; the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons; the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward; the main net position is long and increasing. Overall, carbon neutrality promotes changes in the aluminum industry, which is long - term positive for aluminum prices, while the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where multiple factors are intertwined, leading to an expected oscillatory movement of aluminum prices [2]. - There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. Positive factors include carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts; negative factors are the unoptimistic global economy where high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, real - estate is weak, and short - term macro sentiment is changeable, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 20710, with a basis of 10, indicating a slight premium over the futures price, rated as neutral [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory has increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, rated as neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, rated as bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long and increasing, rated as bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality drives changes in the aluminum industry, which is long - term positive for aluminum prices. The US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a mixed situation, and aluminum prices are expected to move oscillatory [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Negative Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption; the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - Spot Price: Shanghai and Nanchu's prices were 70770 and 70690 respectively, with a decline of 375 and 450; today's Yangtze River price is 70870, with a decline of 400 [4]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts and LME inventory (daily) had changes of 699 and - 425 respectively; LME inventory (daily) and SHFE inventory (weekly) had a change of 29728 [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2024, the supply - demand situation of aluminum in China has been changing. In 2018, the production was 3609 million tons, the net import was 7.03 million tons, the apparent consumption was 3615.03 million tons, the actual consumption was 3662.63 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons. By 2024, the production is expected to be 4312.27 million tons, the net import is 196.16 million tons, the apparent consumption is 4502.5 million tons, the actual consumption is 4487.5 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is 15 million tons [22].