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大越期货燃料油早报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:16

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure and spot spreads remain unchanged due to weak demand and sufficient supply. In August, Singapore is expected to receive about 2.8 - 2.9 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West, higher than 2.3 - 2.4 million tons in July. The spot discount of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has narrowed to $2.90/ton, the smallest since turning negative on July 1st [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 183 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 13th was 22.639 million barrels, an increase of 1.89 million barrels [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions increasing, while the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. - The good atmosphere of the US - Russia talks reduces the probability of energy sanctions on Russia, pressuring upstream crude oil. There is a lack of demand - stimulating highlights in the shipping sector. In the short term, fuel oil will run weakly. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2670 - 2710, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3430 - 3480 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The futures prices of FU and LU main contracts decreased slightly. The basis of FU increased by 3.98%, and that of LU increased by 23.39% [5]. - The spot prices of most fuel oil products changed slightly. The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil increased, while those of some others decreased slightly [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: There is a possibility of increased sanctions on Russia [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamental situation of fuel oil is neutral. The supply and demand situation affects the market structure and spreads. The narrowing of the high - sulfur fuel oil spot discount is due to strong buying from Trafigura Group [3]. - The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [3]. - The inventory increase is a bearish factor [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No detailed spread data analysis is provided other than the mention of the high - low sulfur futures spread in the title [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has shown fluctuations. In the week of August 13th, it increased significantly to 22.639 million barrels [3][8].