大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term processing margin remains low, some PTA devices are under maintenance, and polyester load is rising, so there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in August. However, oil prices are under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on oil prices and changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, last week, the polyester load rebounded to around 89.4%, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, so the demand support is gradually strengthening. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in pricing, and the port shipments will improve. The port inventory is not expected to rise significantly from August to September. It is expected that the MEG price will adjust within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rebound speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, some polyester factories made bids. The August cargo was negotiated and traded at a discount of 12 - 15 to the 09 contract, with some slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4630 - 4680. The mid - September cargo was traded at 09 + 0, and the end - September cargo was traded at 09 + 5. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 13 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4646, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 57, with the futures price at a discount [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing [5]. - Expectation: As mentioned above, short - term price fluctuation and basis range - bound movement are expected [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the market trading was average. The spot was negotiated at a premium of 85 - 89 yuan/ton to the 09 contract, and the basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a low level, and the recent mainstream negotiation price for shipments was around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton, with light trading and mainly wait - and - see from buyers [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4465, and the basis of the 09 contract is 89, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position is increasing [7]. - Expectation: As mentioned above, short - term price range adjustment is expected [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Balance Tables: The report provides PTA and ethylene glycol supply - demand balance tables from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [10][11] - Price - related Data: There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, and processing margins from 2019 - 2025 [14][17][21] - Inventory Analysis Data: It includes inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [40][42][45] - Capacity Utilization Data: There are capacity utilization data of polyester upstream and downstream industries from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - Profit Data: It provides profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from 2022 - 2025 [61][62][65]