大越期货纯碱周报-20250818

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract SA2601 closing 4.73% higher than the previous week at 1395 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also rose by 3.64%. The "anti-involution" policy sentiment faded, and the market returned to fundamentals. Supply is increasing, with expected weekly output close to 780,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. Demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is weak, and inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the soda ash fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The main contract SA2601 closed at 1395 yuan/ton, up 4.73% from the previous week. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1280 yuan/ton, up 3.64%. The main basis was -115 yuan/ton, up 18.56% [9]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1280 yuan/ton, up 3.64% from the previous week [14]. 3. Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -25.60 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co-production method was -41 yuan/ton, recovering from a historical low [17]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly industry operating rate was 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy soda ash ratio was 56.44% [20][22][24]. - Capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new capacity additions in the soda ash industry, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons in these three years, and 100 tons actually put into production in 2025 [25]. 4. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales-to-production ratio: The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash was 92.73% [28]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,600 tons, with a stable operating rate of 75.34%. The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall, and under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry cut production, with the in-production daily melting volume continuing a significant downward trend [32][38]. 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1,893,800 tons, up 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [41]. 6. Fundamentals - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [42]. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - The peak summer maintenance season is approaching, and production will decline [5]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level [6]. - The heavy soda ash downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy sentiment has faded [8]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [7].