大越期货聚烯烃周报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, L01 rose 0.1% to close at 7351 with a total position reduction of about 6100 lots, while PP01 fell 0.1% to close at 7084 with a total position reduction of about 6300 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend. - The main position indicators in Dayue's five major indicators show that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are bearish recently. - The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing. - Fundamentally, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to the fundamentals. Oil prices fluctuated and declined in the short term. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall demand for PE agricultural films fell short of expectations, and the film - making start - up rate was low. The downstream of PP is gradually moving into the peak season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. has improved slightly. - The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Position Changes: L01 rose 0.1% to 7351 with a reduction of about 6100 lots, and PP01 fell 0.1% to 7084 with a reduction of about 6300 lots [5]. - Technical Analysis: The main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend [5]. - Basis Situation: The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing [5]. 3.2 Production Profit | Contract | Latest | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | L Oil - based | - 151 | 126 | | L Coal - based | 963 | - 7 | | PP Oil - based | - 141 | 107 | | PP Coal - based | 418 | - 59 | | PDH | - 411 | - 144 | [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [19]. 3.4 Inventory - The polyolefin industry chain has high inventory. There are also multiple inventory trend charts for PE and PP, including comprehensive inventory, social inventory, and warehouse receipts [5][15][21][24][27][30] 3.5 Start - up Rate - There are start - up rate trend charts for PE and PP, showing the start - up rate changes throughout the year [33][36] 3.6 Profit - There are production cash - flow trend charts for PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) [39][42] 3.7 External Market Price - There are charts showing the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, as well as the US - dollar - denominated prices of PE and PP [45][48][50] 3.8 Downstream - There are charts showing the average start - up rates of PE and PP downstream industries [53][56]