大越期货玻璃周报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the closing price of the main contract FG2601 rising 1.25% to 1211 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1088 yuan/ton, down 1.45% from the previous week [2][8][13]. - After the sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy faded, the market returned to fundamentals. The supply of glass was at a historically low level and stabilized, while the demand from downstream processing plants remained weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Overall, with the fading of the policy's positive effects, the glass fundamentals remained weak, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - The main logic is that although the glass supply has declined to a relatively low level, and there was a phased replenishment in the downstream, the sustainability of the inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate in a wide range [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract FG2601 was 1211 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price was 1088 yuan/ton, down 1.45%. The main basis was -123 yuan/ton, up 33.70% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1088 yuan/ton, down 1.45% from the previous week [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit No specific content provided in the report other than the data source. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%. The daily melting volume was 159,600 tons, remaining flat from the previous week. The production capacity was at the lowest level in the same period and showed signs of stabilizing [3][24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The orders of downstream processing plants remained at a weak level, and some enterprises mainly consumed their own inventory. Affected by the "buying on the upswing" sentiment, the enthusiasm for purchasing was weak [3][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - As of August 14, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, up 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory continued to accumulate above the 5-year average [3][45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent supply, consumption, and other indicators [46]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [5]. - Negative Factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak; the capital recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic; the market sentiment of the "anti-involution" has faded [6].