大越期货沪铝周报-20250818

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View - The Shanghai Aluminum market showed a volatile adjustment and upward trend last week, with the main contract rising 0.47% and closing at 20,770 yuan/ton on Friday. The long - term control of production capacity under carbon neutrality, weak demand due to the suppression of the domestic real estate market, the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increase in steel and aluminum tariffs are negative factors for domestic aluminum prices. The domestic demand has entered the off - season, waiting for consumption to recover. The LME inventory increased slightly last week, and the SHFE weekly inventory increased by 7,039 tons to 120,653 tons [3]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Review - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 0.47% last week and closed at 20,770 yuan/ton on Friday. The LME inventory was 479,550 tons last week, showing a slight increase compared to the previous week, and the SHFE weekly inventory increased by 7,039 tons to 120,653 tons [3]. b. Fundamentals - Supply - demand balance table: The supply - demand balance table of Chinese aluminum from 2018 - 2024 shows that there was a supply shortage from 2018 - 2023, with shortages of 476,000 tons in 2018, 686,100 tons in 2019, 13,000 tons in 2020, 142,000 tons in 2021, 299,800 tons in 2022, and 43,000 tons in 2023. However, in 2024, there is a supply surplus of 150,000 tons [10]. c. Market Structure The report mentions two aspects of market structure: - Spot - futures price difference: No specific content is provided. - Import profit: No specific content is provided.