大越期货天胶早报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with multiple factors affecting supply, demand, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level, overall neutral [4]. - Basis: Spot price is 14,750, basis is - 1,155, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main positions: The main net position is short, and short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, which is a bearish factor [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period, which is a bullish factor [29]. - Tire industry exports are falling, which is a bearish factor [32]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, which is a bearish factor [23][26]. - Price - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on August 15 [8]. - The basis weakened on August 15 [35]. - Inventory - Exchange inventory has increased recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17]. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resilient spot prices [6]. - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6]. - Bearish Factors - Increasing supply [6]. - Qingdao area did not have seasonal inventory reduction [6].