大越期货生猪期货早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week, and the market may experience a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,800 to 14,200 [8]. - The overall sentiment in the domestic macro - environment is pessimistic, and the high - temperature weather has dampened residents' enthusiasm for fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs imposed on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered a slack season, with both supply and demand of pigs decreasing. The spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly in the short term, and the futures market followed a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork decreased in the short term. Affected by the decrease in both supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter [10]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a relatively low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand has suppressed the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and increase in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited potential for further decline in domestic live pig spot prices [11]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into a slack season after May Day [11]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: In August, as the peak season for supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approaches, the enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has increased. The short - term bottom - out and rebound of the pig price is followed by an oscillating pattern. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will increase this week. On the demand side, the pessimistic domestic macro - environment and high - temperature weather have dampened residents' consumption enthusiasm, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - Basis: The national average spot price is 13,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is - 245 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. - Main positions: The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8]