大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,000 - 88,800 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and next - month production is predicted to be 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase [10]. - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost - side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,952 yuan/ton, a 0.28% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,579 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 84,292 yuan/ton, a 0.69% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,868 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral [9]. - Basis: On August 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral [9]. - Market trend: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20. Bullish [11]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [11]. - Positive factors: Manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports [12]. - Negative factors: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Prices: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [17]. - Supply - demand data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 5.36%, and the monthly production increased by 9.70% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Prices: Lithium ore prices have shown fluctuations over the years [24]. - Production: The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has changed over different years [24]. - Imports: Lithium concentrate imports have fluctuated, with imports from Australia and other regions varying [24]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has shown different situations in different months and years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling materials) has changed over time [29]. - Production: Lithium carbonate production has shown an upward or fluctuating trend over different years and months [29]. - Imports: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed [29]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months and years [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over different years [37]. - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) has changed [37]. - Exports: China's lithium hydroxide export volume has shown an upward trend over different years [37]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months and years [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost - profit of different raw materials: The cost - profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production has changed over time [43][46][49]. - Processing cost - profit: The cost - profit of processing lithium hydroxide from different forms (coarse - grained to fine - grained), and the cost - profit of various lithium compound conversion processes have changed [49]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed over time [51]. - Lithium hydroxide inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Prices: The prices of lithium batteries have changed over time [55]. - Production: The monthly production of power cells and energy - storage cells has changed [55]. - Exports: The export volume of lithium batteries has shown an upward trend over different years [55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Prices: The prices of ternary precursors have changed over time [60]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors of different series has changed [60]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has shown different situations in different months and years [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Prices: The prices of ternary materials have changed over time [66]. - Cost - profit: The cost - profit of ternary materials has changed [66]. - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has changed over different years [66]. - Exports and imports: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Prices: The prices of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [70]. - Cost - profit: The cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium has changed [70]. - Production: The monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has changed [73]. - Exports: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has shown an upward trend over different years [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles) has changed over different years [78]. - Exports: The export volume of new energy vehicles has shown an upward trend over different years [78]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles) and the sales penetration rate have changed over different years [78][79]. - Inventory indicators: The retail - wholesale ratio, inventory warning index, and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed over different years [82].