大越期货原油早报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, after the peak season ends, the supply will increase. The short - term lack of stimulus leads to a weak oil price trend. As the peak season for demand is about to end, the oil price faces significant downward pressure. It is expected that the price of crude oil 2509 will operate in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term long positions can be held [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as Trump's talks with Putin did not reach an agreement on halting the war in Ukraine, and he may consider retaliatory tariffs later. The basis is neutral with spot and futures at par. Inventory data is bearish as API, EIA, and Cushing region inventories all increased. The disk shows a bearish signal with the 20 - day moving average downward and the price below it. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long but decreasing, also indicating a bearish trend [3]. 2. Recent News - Geopolitical news: European leaders will accompany Zelensky to meet Trump. Trump claims progress with Russia but details are unknown. A proposal of Russia returning part of occupied territory in exchange for Ukraine's concessions is under discussion, and the fate of the Donbass region is crucial [5]. - Economic news: Wall Street expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September, but Powell may not give major hints at the Jackson Hole meeting. Analysts are divided on whether a rate cut is certain due to inflation above the 2% target and debates on employment data [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - Bearish factors: Potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent decreased by 0.99 to 65.85 (a decline of 1.48%), WTI decreased by 1.16 to 62.80 (a decline of 1.81%), SC increased by 3.40 to 487.0 (an increase of 0.70%), and Oman decreased by 0.27 to 68.19 (a decline of 0.39%) [7]. - Spot prices: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil have also changed. UK Brent decreased by 0.58 to 67.98 (a decline of 0.85%), WTI decreased by 1.16 to 62.80 (a decline of 1.81%), Oman increased by 0.53 to 68.47 (an increase of 0.78%), Shengli increased by 0.53 to 64.44 (an increase of 0.83%), and Dubai increased by 0.52 to 68.41 (an increase of 0.77%) [9]. - Inventory data: API inventory increased by 151.9 barrels to 45321.3 barrels in the week ending August 8; EIA inventory increased by 303.6 barrels to 42669.8 barrels in the same period; Cushing region inventory increased by 4.5 barrels to an unspecified total in the week ending August 8; Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 476.7 barrels as of August 15 [3][10][15]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil: As of August 12, the net long position was 116742, a decrease of 25087 from August 5 [18]. - Brent crude oil: As of August 12, the net long position was 206547, a decrease of 34430 from August 5 [20].